Duke’s transition defense will be tested by Arizona, and the cross-matching between Tennessee and Baylor will be a tilting-point all night long in a Feast Week thriller.
It’s not quite as special as those first four days of the NCAA Tournament, but Feast Week always delivers dandies, especially when ballrooms are involved. This season is no different. Baylor stunned St. John’s, 99-98 in double-overtime, thanks to Jeremy Roach’s game-winning 3-pointer as time expired in Thursday’s Baha Mar Championship opener. Roach wouldn’t have had the opportunity to make a game-winner if he hadn’t bricked a free throw late in regulation to open the door for St. John’s to stay alive.
“He said, ‘I’m going to miss this free throw so I can get a SportsCenter Top 10 play,'” Bears coach Scott Drew told reporters gleefully afterward.
College basketball, folks. It’s the gift that keeps on giving.
For the next glorious week, there will be dozens of games from dawn til deep into the night. We’ll learn an awful lot about these clubs in short order. Baylor is certainly an example of the rollercoaster Feast Week can represent, but there’s no time to rest on its laurels when Tennessee awaits in less than 24 hours.
Key pivot point: Can Duke keep Arizona out of transition?
Arizona has been a phenomenal transition offense under Tommy Lloyd. When Arizona’s running, it feels almost unbeatable. Duke can control some of that with its shot selection. The Blue Devils cannot get sped up by Arizona and try to counterpunch with quick, low-quality shots in transition because that can snowball in a hurry against these Wildcats.
Both of these defenses have the personnel to put each other in jail in the halfcourt, but Arizona’s transition offense is the ultimate thumper. It’s not a coincidence that in seven of Arizona’s last eight losses, it has scored 15 or fewer points in transition. If Duke holds Arizona under that threshold, it can emerge with a roadkill.
Townsend, a key Oakland transfer, has quickly turned into Arizona’s best offensive player in the halfcourt. The 6-foot-6, 235-pound forward is just a problem. He’s a great cutter, he plays within himself and he can attack long defenders and finish around or through them. Townsend is strong as an ox and quite crafty. Flagg is already revered on the defensive end due to his insane wingspan and ridiculous defensive IQ.
But Kentucky forward Andrew Carr went right at the freshman phenom. Flagg won a few duals. Carr won his fair share, too. Arizona’s offense will look to Townsend for that spark. Don’t be surprised if Tommy Lloyd tries to get Flagg switched off Townsend. Will Duke refuse to let that happen? Will the vet school the young buck? The winner of this one-on-one matchup will tilt the scales.
Key pivot point: Can Nebraska limit Creighton’s 3s?
Names and faces change, but Creighton has been unloading its clip from downtown against Fred Hoiberg’s defense.
Creighton has shot 40 3-pointers in back-to-back matchups against its in-state rival.
Creighton’s personnel this year might not be quite as potent from downtown as the previous years, but it is still highly dangerous. Nebraska’s been blitzing a bunch of ball screens, but Creighton big man Ryan Kalkbrenner is highly competent playing 4-on-3 basketball and spraying it out to shooters. Nebraska has to try and funnel the ball into the right hands. When Jasen Green is on the floor, that’s fine. Jamiya Neal? Knock yourself out. Steven Ashworth or Jackson McAndrew? Absolutely not.
Nebraska’s off-ball awareness has to be really good and it has to be dialed into the scouting report. Flying around is great, but scampering around with a plan would be even better.
Creighton dipped into the portal for Neal to prepare for matchups just like this. Neal is the long-armed, wiry, big-guard defender that Creighton’s roster just did not have. Neal will get the assignment on Williams who has turned into a bigger and better player in his second season with the Huskers. Williams is fresh off a 28-point showing against Saint Mary’s, so he’ll enter this one with lots of confidence. Williams loves to operate in the middle of the floor, and Creighton’s highly-passive defense cedes a ton of midrange shots. Neal has to navigate screens at a high level and recover for some of those rear-view contests. If Williams is getting comfortable in the midrange, he can single-handedly keep Nebraska in it.
Key pivot point: Can Virginia play clean?
Virginia point guard Dai Dai Ames stands out on this roster because he’s so much faster than the rest of his teammates. He has to stay on the floor because he’s one of the only guys on this roster who can actually penetrate the defenses off the bounce. But he’s turnover-prone. Ames had four turnovers against Tennessee and four more against Villanova. St. John’s has one of the most potent transition offenses in the country, and it is fueled by a defense that can take the basketball away. St. John’s loves to blitz ball screens and force opposing point guards to survive the onslaught. If Ames is coughing it up and letting St. John’s get out and run, it’s going to be a long day for UVa.
Oh baby, just what you signed up for. Off-ball wings chatter! But seriously, Scott is one of the few players on this St. John’s roster who can puncture the pack-line defense by just draining 3-pointers over the top of it. Saunders will likely get the first crack at the St. John’s forward. Saunders cannot overhelp and he has to be super physical with Scott to bump him off his spot and make him uncomfortable. If Virginia turns into a jump-shooting contest, but Saunders isn’t letting Scott get free, interim coach Ron Sanchez will like his chances.
Key pivot point: Can Baylor’s guards drive the ball?
This is strength on strength. Baylor’s offense has pivoted away from a ton of pick-and-rolls and rather features a bunch more drive-and-kick actions to attack long closeouts and accentuate its deep, loaded backcourt. Baylor can usually find a weak link on the perimeter and get opposing defenses into rotation with turbo drives. But Tennessee’s point-of-attack defense is a fortress. Jahmai Mashack and Zakai Zeigler are on the National Defensive Player of the Year shortlist. Their off-ball defense might be even better than their ridiculously impactful, on-ball defense. Tennessee will be in business if Baylor’s lead guards can’t drive the ball and get into the paint. Chaz Lanier has been phenomenal all season offensively, but Tennessee can’t hide the North Florida transfer in this matchup. Baylor has way too many guards with juice. Lanier has to play his best defensive game of the season.
Baylor has just been way better this season when it goes small, inserting freshman point guard Rob Wright into the game and taking center Josh Ojianwuna off the floor. Norchad Omier shifts to the 5, Jeremy Roach slides into a 2-guard role and Baylor starts humming … on offense. That’s going to be tough to do against Tennessee. If that happens, some of the cross-matching gets awkward for both teams. If Tennessee stays with its normal starting 5, Vols’ center Felix Okpara will stay on Omier. That means Milicic, a 6-foot-10 forward, will have to guard one of Baylor’s backcourt studs like Jayden Nunn or VJ Edgecombe. That’s probably going to be an advantage for Baylor. But Baylor has to guard him with a smaller guy, too. Milicic has been great lately, rising over defenders for 3s and attacking the glass with a vengeance. Milicic could force Baylor to stay big if he’s dominating some of Scott Drew’s small-ball lineups. But if he’s struggling to defend in space, Tennessee may be the team that has to counter to go small and get Jordan Gainey on the floor in a hurry.
The chess match will be fascinating.
Key pivot point: Can Maryland keep exposing Villanova’s shoddy pick-and-roll defense?
Villanova’s ball-screen defense has been leaking oil all year, allowing a whopping 1.254 points per possession in 114 pick-and-roll opportunities this season. That’s one of the worst marks in the country, per Synergy.
Maryland’s pick-and-roll game has been superb, particularly because Ja’Kobi Gillespie is such a baller. Even Marquette’s awesome defense still allowed 26 points off pick-and-rolls to Maryland. Villanova could be in serious hot water if Gillespie can pick it apart.
These two southpaws are going to tangle all day long. Villanova loves to play through Dixon who will be a serious contender to lead the country in scoring. Maryland’s best bet might be to let Reese try to slow him down one-on-one. Maryland has different bodies it can throw at Dixon, like freshman Derik Queen or sturdy frontcourt veteran Jordan Geronimo, but Reese is familiar with Dixon’s game and should get the first crack. Forcing Villanova to beat ’em with 2s feels like the right strategy. This Villanova club is taking and making a lot of treys right now, but Dixon is the catalyst for it all because so many teams have to double the prolific scorer. Maryland is a way different. But can Reese defend without fouling?