Duke freshman Cooper Flagg will be the second-youngest college player ever drafted to the NBA when he’s selected in June (he will be 18 years, 186 days old).
With his 18th birthday coming on Dec. 21, Flagg isn’t even old enough to vote in the upcoming presidential election. He’s also entering a college basketball landscape that has never been older or more competitive, as NIL and immediate eligibility via the transfer portal has allowed teams to load up on physically mature, highly experienced upperclassmen.
But even at such a young age, Flagg is the most hyped American freshman in years, rivaling only Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James back in 2003 for attention and accolades received as a high school recruit.
“I haven’t gone through this yet with a 17-year-old in this way,” Duke coach Jon Scheyer, who has had Flagg on campus since June, told ESPN this month.
“We’ve had 18-year-olds, we’ve had 19-year-olds. But being 17, a year early — it’s going to be a process. He’s going to go through some ups and downs. He’s going to have a terrific season, but there will be moments where he has to grow, and that’s what it’s all about. I have total belief when we step on the floor that we have the best player on the court, right away.”
Flagg’s 9-point, 4-rebound, 3-assist, 21-minute outing in a preseason win Sunday against Arizona State suggested as much. Flagg had some outstanding moments demonstrating his two-way versatility, intensity and budding skill, but also some of the things he needs to work on with his shot creation and shooting inconsistency, especially on a stacked Duke squad that is clearly the most talented roster in college basketball.
Other NBA players have been in Flagg’s shoes at such a young age — Tim Duncan at Wake Forest, GG Jackson II at South Carolina and even Shaquille O’Neal at LSU.
What can those players’ career arcs teach us about Flagg’s future, and how does his unique on-court game lend itself to exceedingly high expectations?
Let’s put all that history into context through an NBA draft lens, starting with a look at past comparisons.
Flagg will be eligible for the 2025 NBA draft by 11 days. Had he been born two weeks later, in early January — as San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama was (Jan. 4) — he would have had to wait another year to enter the draft in 2026.
The only reason Flagg is in this draft is that he elected to complete enough academic coursework at Montverde Academy (Florida) to graduate high school in three years, a process called “reclassification” that has become more popular in recent years as online schooling has become more prevalent.
By comparison, James was born Dec. 30 and entered the NBA as an 18-year-old (as Flagg will), despite players being allowed to declare for the draft straight out of high school prior to league rules being changed in 2005.
Seventeen year olds haven’t had it easy in college basketball in recent years, amplifying the challenges ahead of Flagg this season. As mentioned, Flagg will become the second-youngest player to be drafted, behind Alabama’s Josh Primo (Dec. 24 birthday), who left the Crimson Tide after averaging 8.1 points in 22 minutes per game as a freshman in 2021, becoming the No. 12 pick by the Spurs. Primo is currently out of the NBA.
Another similar story is Jackson (Dec. 17 birthday), who, like Flagg, was also the No. 1-ranked player in his high school class (Ridge View, South Carolina). Jackson fell to the No. 45 pick in the 2023 draft after an underwhelming season at South Carolina in which he shot 38% from the field with more than three times as many turnovers as assists (the Gamecocks finished 4-14 in the SEC that season).
A recent example of a highly regarded 17-year-old playing college basketball is one-time No. 1 high school recruit Jalen Duren, who played one season with the Memphis Tigers (2021-22). He averaged 12 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.1 blocks for the Tigers, but the 6-foot-10 center surprisingly fell to the Charlotte Hornets with the No. 13 pick in the 2022 draft.
Even Duncan (admittedly a late bloomer) didn’t dominate the sport initially as a 17-year-old at Wake Forest, posting 9.8 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.8 blocks per game as a freshman in 1993-94. His performance didn’t earn him any of the 15 spots on the ACC’s all-conference teams, and the ACC Rookie of the Year award went to Maryland’s Joe Smith (No. 1 pick after his sophomore year). The Hall of Famer stayed all four years at Wake Forest despite becoming an All-American as a sophomore.
If there’s curiosity to find a 17-year-old who was a dominant presence from day one, as some hope Flagg will be, we need to go back to 1989 and Shaquille O’Neal, arguably the most dominant player in basketball history. Shaq posted 13.9 points, 12.0 rebounds and 3.6 blocks per game as an LSU freshman, earning him SEC All-Conference first-team honors and an honorable mention nod on the AP All-America Team.
If Flagg isn’t one of the 15 players named to the All-America Team this season (he was one of six players named to the AP’s preseason All-America Team) will it be considered a disappointment or, like O’Neal, a footnote in his bio?
When it comes to realistic goals and considering scoring has never been the biggest strength of Flagg’s game, does being an All-American fall in line with what’s practical for such a young draft prospect?
After all, many of the freshmen named All-Americans in recent years were older than Flagg (some significantly). Hornets forward Brandon Miller (No. 2 pick in 2023) turned 20 in November of his freshman season at Alabama, while Oklahoma City Thunder power forward Chet Holmgren (No. 2 pick in 2022) and Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham (No. 1 pick in 2021), were 19 years old for the duration of their seasons at Gonzaga and Oklahoma State, respectively.
Others, such as former Duke players Zion Williamson (No. 1 pick by the New Orleans Pelicans in 2019) and RJ Barrett (No. 3 pick by the New York Knicks in 2019), were around six months older than Flagg at the same stage of their freshman seasons. Williamson (22.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.1 steals, 1.8 blocks) was also the last freshman named AP Player of the Year in 2019, becoming just the third player to do so, following 18-year-old Anthony Davis (14.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.7 blocks) in 2012 for the Kentucky Wildcats, and 18-year-old Kevin Durant (25.8 points, 11.1 rebounds, 1.9 steals, 1.9 blocks) in 2007 for the Texas Longhorns.
Those three clearly represent the high-water mark for what an 18-year-old can do at the college level, even if the level of competition has risen with many of the game’s best players opting to stay longer.
With those players and the current landscape in mind, expecting Flagg to be the most productive player in college basketball is likely still setting the bar too high, especially since many of the things the 6-9 forward does best don’t show up in the box score.
NBA scouts point to Flagg’s defensive versatility and awareness as his best traits, which is unusual for someone his age. He’s an outstanding shot-blocker, both rotating to protect the rim and challenging jumpers on the perimeter. He switches seamlessly between guards, wings, forwards and big men with his exceptional mobility and intensity, which also allow him to make a significant impact as a rebounder.
“Defense is one thing I’ve always prided myself on,” Flagg told ESPN earlier this month. “Not getting scored on, making the right plays, rotations.”
Flagg’s fast processing speed and natural basketball instincts also manifest in his passing: He’s highly unselfish — sometimes to a fault — while making the game easy for his teammates. His ability to push the ball ahead in transition, make touch passes around the perimeter or into the post and execute offensively are advanced for a player his age.
Flagg’s perimeter shooting has also come a long way, which will play a major role in the way he’s utilized by Duke and determine how prolific of a scorer he ends up being. Most of Flagg’s offense in high school came in the open floor, crashing the offensive glass, hitting spot-up jumpers, and moving off the ball intelligently. He averaged 16.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game at Montverde last season, shooting a highly efficient 61% for 2-pointers, 39% for 3s and 80% from the free throw line.
Players don’t usually average more points as college freshmen than they do as high school seniors, but Duke will likely be just as balanced this season as Flagg’s Montverde team (which went 31-0) was last year, perhaps allowing him to play a similar role.
“Cooper’s feel for the game, combined with his athleticism, motor and the way he impacts winning on both ends of the floor, are what makes him special in my view,” one NBA executive told ESPN.
“He’s a basketball savant who is a step ahead of every play, which is what our game is built around with the tempo the NBA is played at. It will be interesting to see how much casual fans and media will be able to appreciate that, though. He’s going to have some big-time highlights — blocks, steals, dunks, 3s, but he might not always put up gaudy scoring lines. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.”
The next step in Flagg’s offensive evolution, as he matures on the cusp of turning 18, will be as a ball handler and shot-creator, areas of his game we didn’t see as much of at the high school level and clearly have room for growth. He can manufacture offense with his size, feel for the game, explosiveness and aggressiveness. But how much of a pick-and-roll and one-on-one player he can become long-term will help determine just how high his ceiling will be as an NBA player, something that will likely take years to fully evaluate.
Flagg shrugged off questions about national expectations and his role, instead deflecting back to the importance of doing what it takes to help Duke win games, in his typical understated fashion.
“Expectations and all that is great,” Flagg told ESPN. “Outside of this team, they can say whatever. That doesn’t faze me, it doesn’t affect me, it doesn’t change the way I want to play because people think I should be dominating the game. I don’t really care. It’s going to come down to what I need to do or what my role shapes into.”
If Flagg is to succeed at Duke and in the NBA, he’ll be following in the footsteps of versatile big men before him who faced big expectations from a young age.
“He’s going to be great for our game,” the same NBA executive said. “In terms of reorienting for the younger generation what we consider basketball stars to look like. He’s a throwback, a little like Tim Duncan with the way he goes about his business. I see some Kevin Garnett there also in terms of the passing, the defensive impact, and the competitiveness, but with less bravado.
“It’s going to be really interesting to see how it all plays out in terms of expectations and results.”
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